The U.S. report said U.S. hegemonic era will end 2030 non-hegemonic state

"By 2030, no country - whether it is in the United States, China or any other big country - the hegemonic state personal empowerment, the dispersion of power between states, as well as the power from the national to the informal network of dispersed, will produce profound influence on major historic rise of Western reversed since 1750 to regain the weight in the global economy in Asia, and turn in the international and domestic levels 'democratization' a new era. " 　　Assert that the end of U.S. hegemony, as well as the reversal of the rise of the West Asian weighty resume, no doubt is the most striking of these words. More striking is that these words do not come from a U.S. think tank report, but from the U.S. National Intelligence Council has just released the 10th report "Global Trends 2030: the world.
　　U.S. National Intelligence Council to assist the work of the Director of National Intelligence, responsible for unified, coordinated intelligence community's strategic intelligence analysis, called the U.S. intelligence community, "the center of the medium-and long-term strategic thinking. Global Trends Report is an important assessment of the committee of intelligence products, is intended to provide for the newly elected president about the next 15 years, the global trend is forecast to provide a framework for thinking vision of strategic policy for the White House and the intelligence community. The report submitted to the general in the Presidential Election Day and Inauguration Day between elected president.
　　The official U.S. report bluntly the end of the hegemony of the United States, it is rare in the just-concluded U.S. presidential election, the two presidential candidates are afraid to even mention the "fading". However, the U.S. National Intelligence Council claims to provide decision-makers with the "best information" that is "genuine, impartial, its judgment is consistent with current U.S. policy". The members of the Committee are senior experts from government, academia and the private sector, this global trend report released also experienced the commentaries of the experts of the United States and nearly 20 countries, as well as opinions from the Internet. "This report is intended to stimulate thinking for the world today, rapid and enormous geopolitical changes, as well as the next 15 to 20 years may be a global trend." The report said. Christopher, chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council, Keji Mu 10, 2009 at the National Press Club in Washington, held a press conference, he stressed that the report is not to predict the future, but are designed to provide for the newly elected president and his government for the next 15-20 years. global strategic assessment framework.
　　"Global Trends 2030" report is divided into three parts, one is the trend, including personal empowerment, decentralization, population paradigm, food, water and energy coupling relations; second is the "game-changing" and that some The track is far from the OK key variables, including the global economic crisis may occur, governance divide may increase conflict and wider regional instability, the impact of new technology, the role of the United States; 2030 may appear four cases (World): "engine flameout", "fusion", "bottle release 'Gini' (factor)," non-state world.
　　"Personal empowerment" part in the "trend", the report says, because of poverty reduction, the widespread use of the growth of the global middle class, greater educational achievement, new communication and manufacturing technology, and medical advances, personal strength be enhanced further, may be more forceful in addressing global challenges, but individuals and small groups will also be easier to get a deadly weapon or ability, such as precision strike capability, network tools, and chemical and biological weapons, enabling the manufacture of large-scale violence. About the "decentralization", the report asserts that "will no longer have any hegemonic power", "power will be transferred to the various networks and alliances in a multi-polar world". "Asian global power (based on GDP, population size, military spending and investment in technology) will be more than the sum of North America and Europe." The report said China may become the largest economy in 2030, the health of the global economy will be increasingly linked with the economic performance of developing countries. "In addition to China, India, Brazil, the regional powers, such as Colombia, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa and Turkey will become the world economy, especially important to the country. At the same time, Europe, Japan, and Russia's economy is likely to continue to slowly relative recession." Report also pointed out that the nature of power is also changed some of the strongest fundamentals (such as gross domestic product (GDP), population size, etc.), great powers must learn to operate in a multi-polar world, networks and alliances to wield.
　　Among the population paradigm ", the report said Western countries and most developing countries are aging trend, economic growth is likely to decline; 60% of the world's population will live in cities, bringing food and water pressure; immigrants growing increasingly become transnational issues. The report also predicted that due to the growth of the global population, food, water and energy needs will be substantial growth, and solve problems related to a commodity will also be associated with other commodities, the supply and demand. A large structural changes that may arise, the United States will achieve energy independence.
　　Part of the "game-changing", the report discusses six key variables. First, the global economic crisis may occur. Imbalance and instability of the global economic development will result in the collapse of, or increase the toughness of the global economy? The report believes that the next decade is unlikely to return to growth rates before 2008, and the rapid globalization of the mode, but can not rule out the possibility of another global economic crisis occurring. "The prospects for the world economy will become increasingly dependent on the prospects of the 'East' and 'South'." The report refers to the contribution of developing countries to global economic growth of more than 70%, while China's contribution is 1.5 times the U.S. contribution. The report cites the assessment of the World Bank, said that by 2025, China will contribute about 1/3 of the global economic growth, far more than any other economy. The report also pointed out that China also faces its own challenges, such as the slowdown in economic growth, may fall into the "middle-income trap".
　　The second is the governance gap. The face of rapid change, governments and international institutions is the ability to adapt quickly, they will be "overwhelming"? The report argues that the current general Western domination of international institutions, such as the United Nations Security Council, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, Organization, 2030 may have been converted to the new world economic realities consistent. Third, the conflict is likely to increase. Report that, due to the changes in the international system, the increase in the risk of inter-state conflict. The report said that the consideration of important countries (especially China, India and Russia) change, the increase in the scramble for resources, easier access to the tools of war, so that the increase in the risk of conflict between countries. But is unlikely to occur all the major powers involved in the World War, because of the economic and political damage big countries aware of the large-scale conflict. Report that, in the next 20 years, the United States will be the extent to be able to continue to play international system defenders of concern, and a decline of the United States is unwilling or no longer able to ensure global security, will be the key factors that lead to instability in the world , especially in Asia and the Middle East.
　　Fourth, a wider range of instability in the region. The report said the turmoil in the Middle East and South Asia could cause wider instability, but "the lack of a stable regional security framework," increasingly multi-polar Asia will be one of the biggest global threats. The report said, "fear of Chinese power, the possibility of rising nationalism in China, and the United States is still involved in the affairs of the region may bring problems will increase instability in Asia. Fifth, the impact of new technologies. The men are able to have timely access to the scientific and technological breakthroughs, to improve productivity and to solve the problem due to global population growth, rapid urbanization and climate change?
　　Sixth, the role of the United States. The report that the international role of the United States how it will evolve in the next 15-20 years, the United States whether to reshape the international system of cooperation with new partner countries, it is difficult to determine. The most likely scenario is that the United States to become equal partners in the first place, the United States still has a wide range of hard power and soft power advantage. Reported that "However, with the rapid rise of other countries 'unipolar moment' has been in the past, 'the United States under the rule of peace' - began in 1945 in the United States in the international political reign - is rapidly ending." The U.S. position in the world by whether it is successful in helping to manage international crises determined. "If Asia is a repeat of the history of Europe in the 19th century and the early 20th century, the United States will be called on to become a 'balanced hand', to ensure the stability of the region." Dollars if you can not continue to be the international reserve currency, economic and political status in the United States will be greatly weakened . The report at the same time, 2030, the United States is unlikely to be another global power is replaced, the emerging countries have no intention to establish a new international system. The report said that the emerging countries "of the US-led international order ambivalence or even resentment, but they benefit from, and are more interested in the continued economic development and political consolidation. In addition, the emerging countries is not huddled, so it will not propose any a unified alternative global architecture.
　　Report also suggested several possible large global factors: severe infectious diseases; faster climate change; euro area or EU collapse; "a democratic or collapse of China"; "a reform of Iran"; nuclear war or weapons of mass destruction, cyber attacks; solar storms; detachment of the United States and the world.
　　The combination of above-trend and "change the game" factors, the report envisages four cases in 2030, representing a different path leading to the 2030. First, "turn off the engine. This is the "worst case": the United States and the EU turned its attention to China, no longer interested in maintaining its global leadership, and an increased risk of conflict between countries, globalization, and global economic stagnation. The second is a "fusion". This is a "best case": China and the United States to cooperate on a range of issues, driven by broader global cooperation; international multilateral institutions experienced reform and more inclusive, developing and developed countries in economic growth. Third bottle release 'Gini (factor)', that is the extreme inequality of international and domestic inequality increased social tensions in the country, Europe and the United States to become the winner in the international country to become a failed state; large country differences of opinion, the likelihood of conflict increases. Fourth, the "non-state world", that is due to the new technology-driven, non-state actors (such as non-governmental organizations, the rise of multinational corporations, academic institutions, wealthy individuals, etc.), and to take the lead in the face of global challenges.
　　The report pointed out that the Commission and national experts on the discussion of the first draft of the report, "China is a key theme," A lot of people agree with the proposed US-China relations may shape the future of the most important bilateral relationship ". In every part of the report, "China" appear frequently, the development of the Chinese middle class, the trend of economic growth, overall national strength, population trends, urbanization, resource supply, food supply, the relationship between the neighboring countries have become report concerns. National Intelligence Council Counselor Matthew, Barros said at a news conference to answer about the issue of Sino-US relations, the United States and China now appears unlikely to be caught in conflict; greater than the face of global challenges, the possibility of cooperation between China and the United States confrontation. In fact, he said the United States are more worried about a weakening of China. He pointed out that Sino-US leaders recognize that there are many issues that need cooperation between the two countries in the world, China and the United States maintain a high level of cooperation is not an unrealistic expectation.
　　The U.S. National Intelligence Council launched the report, of course, is not just to Luo lists these trends or factors, but by national policy-makers in the United States and even to shape conducive to the United States, in line with U.S. interests and values ​​of the future world order . Christopher Keji Mu, Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, said, "We are at a critical juncture in the history of mankind", "the future is uncertain, but it is plastic, the next big trend, the result of the interaction between the key variables and governance institutions .